A second path towards a nuclear Islamic state?

Just as the Western world concluded its New Year's celebrations, the Islamic Republic of Iran announced that the country's scientists had successfully produced a uranium nuclear fuel rod. If indeed these claims are proven true, it would mark a considerable leap in the Ayatollah’s race towards nuclear capability.

Uranium (U) fuel rods are an essential core component for powering a uranium-based fission reactor. There are several major to the self production of a fuel rod. The first indicates to the enrichment capabilities. The second are the byproducts that are produced in a reactor core.

Firstly, in order to produce a fuel rod, one would have to enrich uranium to level of at least 19.7%, this is a very high enrichment level, yet this is not a weapons grade level. However, this underscores that the Islamic republic has the technological capabilities to achieve 20% enrichment.  It is also contradicts what was previously though that Iran can enrich uranium to a 3-5% level; the distance towards a 90-95% enrichment level is only a matter of time, base material and will.

Secondly, depending on the base substance, a byproduct of a uranium fission process is plutonium. This element is highly toxic (one millionth of a gram is enough to kill a person), and has very little civilian uses. However, plutonium can produce a fission reaction; therefore it is used as a fission material in a plutonium based atom bomb. If in fact Iran has the ability to produce fuel rods, it could also harvest the plutonium, thus opening the door to a second path towards a plutonium nuclear weapon, and not just uranium based one.

Thirdly, due to its high level of toxicity, spent uranium nuclear fuel rods have to be disposed of carefully, especially if they have traces to plutonium on them. Until now, according to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran got its fuel rods from Russia, and it is obligated to return the used fuel rods back to Russia for a proper disposal. Now, Iran would have to dispose of the rods in-house. The problem with this is that Iran has no proper experience dealing with the disposal of wasted nuclear fuel rods; therefore there is an increased possibility that terrorists will be able to put their hands on nuclear waste products in order to produce a nuclear dirty bomb.

Furthermore, it is thought that Iran is only two steps away from assembling a nuclear weapon. It has yet been able to develop a nuclear trigger – this is crucial component that starts the nuclear reaction. The second step is the miniaturization of the bomb to a missile war head dimensions, however, this is not imperative as Iran possess other delivery platforms such as bomber aircraft like the Russia build Sukhoi Su-24.

Moreover, the announcement regarding the ability to produce fuel rods, if true, indicates that the sanctions that are imposed on the country are not effective enough to stop Iran from reaching a nuclear bomb capability. This may open a door for more decisive steps against the Islamic state.

Finally, considering the fact that Iran has the ability to enrich uranium to a 20% level and possibly higher; the fact that it may be able to harvest plutonium from spent fuel rods; and that the county is only one step away from developing a usable nuclear device, with statement previously made by the Iranian leadership regarding the annihilation of the State of Israel. It seems that Iran is in a path towards a nuclear weapon and that it has the willingness to use it.