Who is really in Control of Southern Lebanon?

Recently rising tension in southern Lebanon has shown that the militant group Hezbollah remains large and in charge. In a recent attack on December 9, a roadside bomb injured five French UNIFIL troops. Although Hezbollah is not directly responsible for the attack, and claimed they are in favor of the UN forces' presence in southern border with Israel, they remain responsible for the security situation south of the Litani River. The situation in southern Lebanon is almost too quiet since the Second Lebanon War in the summer of 2006. Even though United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1701 calls for disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon (i.e. Hezbollah), and no armed forces other than UNIFIL are to be south of the Litani, this does not stop the militant group from unofficially controlling the area. Following a large blast in southern Lebanon last week, UNIFIL officials were once again kept away from the area by Hezbollah security along with Lebanese army, as "investigation" into what caused the blast was conducted.   

Hezbollah is said to possess some 10,000 long-range and 20,000 short-range rockets while utilizing hundreds of houses in southern Lebanon for weapon storage. Some of these weapons include Fajr Missiles, C-802 Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles, Zelzal unguided artillery rocket and Kornet anti-tank rockets. Many of these weapons among others are Iranian made and have been smuggled in through Syria. Although mounting sanctions on Iran have lowered their supply to Hezbollah by some 25%, while the border between Syria and Lebanon is mined to deter Syrian army defectors, this does not diminish Hezbollah's current arms supplies or determination to find alternate smuggling routes.  

The cleverness of the Central Intelligence Agency has also not been sparred, as several spies (likely of Lebanese nationality) were captured by Hezbollah. The spy ring was likely discovered due to counterintelligence work; tracking cell phone usage and pursuit of suspects. The same methods used to break up an Israeli intelligence ring in 2009. Such sophistication was not always present among the militant group who strike fear not only internationally but also at home. The March 14 Alliance has on several different occasions warned of the dangers of an armed Hezbollah and called for a transfer of power (especially in southern Lebanon) to the hands of the Lebanese Army Command.

The recent allegations against four Hezbollah members for the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, has the militant group on the one hand under immense pressure, while on the other, clamping down and using threats in order to achieve political gains. The danger of civil war always exists in the sectarian and multi-ethnic country of Lebanon and Hezbollah would not hesitate to spark an internal conflict if it felt its existence in imminent danger.

In terms of a renewed conflict with Israel, Hezbollah has used the excuse of gas fields excavated near the Lebanese border to remain armed, claiming that they would not hesitate to use force in order to protect what they deem as Lebanon's natural resources. 

It is clear through these recent incidents and strong Hezbollah involvement in the March-8 coalition that the militant group is not showing any signs of falling apart. Even as Iran and Syria absorb strong international sanctions, while the Lebanese army maintains "control" of southern Lebanon, Hezbollah remains looming in the background, strong and unhesitant to put up a fight to defend its honor and survival. 

Those traveling to S. Lebanon should check out this travel security website.