Thursday, December 22, 2011

Egypt's First Round


The first round of voting went by with relative calm. Egyptians came out to vote in great numbers, with a 70% participation rate among eligible voters. Despite long delays and long lines at polling stations, most waited patiently to exercise their right to vote in the countries first free elections. Initial surveys predict the Muslim Brotherhood's party, Freedom and Justice Party, will win the most votes, with close to 40%. The brotherhood's rise to power will create a new reality in the post Mubarak Egypt. Many secular Egyptians, as well as Western Nations, fear of a possible "Islamisation" in Egypt, with much emphasis on Islamic laws. However, the brotherhood and their political Party FJP, are attempting to calm such fears, stating that Egypt will remain a democratic nation first.

What can we expect?
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While the brotherhood presents a fairly liberal Islamic Agenda, history proves that this may change. A similar process took place in Turkey over the past decade. The Muslim Turkish Justice and Development Party, took power in a landslide victory in the Turkish elections of 2002. The party's agenda was that of Liberal Islam, promising to keep Turkey's separation between religion and state. Over the years, we have witnessed a rise in the popularity of Islam in Turkey, including in the governments actions. Most notably the downfall of Turkey's ultra secular symbol, the Army. Middle East Intelligence Analysts have identified this trend and point to the growing spillage of Islamic laws into the Turkish modern life.

In Egypt, a similar scenario may occur. The Muslim Brotherhood may tone down the Islamic Ideology during the initial elections period in order to gain support from moderate Islamist and secular voters. The FJP in Egypt has consulted with its Turkish counterparts prior to the Egyptian elections. They discussed methods of gaining wide spread support from secular voters and not just religious voters. One can only hope the the FJP's post election decision making will adhere to the Liberal Islamic agenda presented in their campaign. If not, we will witness an Egypt that is slowly turning into a nation led more Islamic Sharia laws on the expense of democratic ideals.
This process will take some time, but will surely contribute to the struggles ahead in Egypt's post Mubarak era.  

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