Who is really in Control of Southern Lebanon?

Recently rising tension in southern Lebanon has shown that the militant group Hezbollah remains large and in charge. In a recent attack on December 9, a roadside bomb injured five French UNIFIL troops. Although Hezbollah is not directly responsible for the attack, and claimed they are in favor of the UN forces' presence in southern border with Israel, they remain responsible for the security situation south of the Litani River. The situation in southern Lebanon is almost too quiet since the Second Lebanon War in the summer of 2006. Even though United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1701 calls for disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon (i.e. Hezbollah), and no armed forces other than UNIFIL are to be south of the Litani, this does not stop the militant group from unofficially controlling the area. Following a large blast in southern Lebanon last week, UNIFIL officials were once again kept away from the area by Hezbollah security along with Lebanese army, as "investigation" into what caused the blast was conducted.   

Hezbollah is said to possess some 10,000 long-range and 20,000 short-range rockets while utilizing hundreds of houses in southern Lebanon for weapon storage. Some of these weapons include Fajr Missiles, C-802 Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles, Zelzal unguided artillery rocket and Kornet anti-tank rockets. Many of these weapons among others are Iranian made and have been smuggled in through Syria. Although mounting sanctions on Iran have lowered their supply to Hezbollah by some 25%, while the border between Syria and Lebanon is mined to deter Syrian army defectors, this does not diminish Hezbollah's current arms supplies or determination to find alternate smuggling routes.  

The cleverness of the Central Intelligence Agency has also not been sparred, as several spies (likely of Lebanese nationality) were captured by Hezbollah. The spy ring was likely discovered due to counterintelligence work; tracking cell phone usage and pursuit of suspects. The same methods used to break up an Israeli intelligence ring in 2009. Such sophistication was not always present among the militant group who strike fear not only internationally but also at home. The March 14 Alliance has on several different occasions warned of the dangers of an armed Hezbollah and called for a transfer of power (especially in southern Lebanon) to the hands of the Lebanese Army Command.

The recent allegations against four Hezbollah members for the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, has the militant group on the one hand under immense pressure, while on the other, clamping down and using threats in order to achieve political gains. The danger of civil war always exists in the sectarian and multi-ethnic country of Lebanon and Hezbollah would not hesitate to spark an internal conflict if it felt its existence in imminent danger.

In terms of a renewed conflict with Israel, Hezbollah has used the excuse of gas fields excavated near the Lebanese border to remain armed, claiming that they would not hesitate to use force in order to protect what they deem as Lebanon's natural resources. 

It is clear through these recent incidents and strong Hezbollah involvement in the March-8 coalition that the militant group is not showing any signs of falling apart. Even as Iran and Syria absorb strong international sanctions, while the Lebanese army maintains "control" of southern Lebanon, Hezbollah remains looming in the background, strong and unhesitant to put up a fight to defend its honor and survival. 

Those traveling to S. Lebanon should check out this travel security website.

He Spoke... Now what?

Tensions in Egypt are high today following General Tanatwi's speech last night. The SCAF (The temporary ruling body in Egypt) leader presented a new timetable for the upcoming elections, hoping to quell the protesters. However, the protesters remain in the streets for now, while their leaders are considering their next move. The situation has an immediate effect on travel security and safety. While westerners are not targeted by protesters, incidental risks are relevant in the areas where the protests are taking place. It is also important to note the crime level in Egypt is on the rise, following the lack of proficient, motivated, police personnel (For a thorough assessment of crime in Cairo, feel free to email me with a particular area of interest). Contact Middle East Security vendors for local assistance.

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The demands that fueled the recent protest

Protesters originally took the streets with two major demands.

1.       To change the elections timetable. SCAF's proposed schedule prolongs over almost a year and includes several rounds before the presidential elections in 2013. This means that SCAF will remain in power for a long "temporary" period.

2.       To fire the government. This is especially relevant following the proposed constitutional bill that guarantees the Military's ability to overthrow governments when necessary, and does not allow any intervention by the parliament in the military budget.

What now?

In yesterday's speech Tantawi announced the resignation of the government and moved up the election schedule (to be concluded in June 2012, instead of early 2013). The speech did not have the expected effect yet. Protesters have not left the demonstration centers in Cairo and other cities. The next few hours are critical as political parties will decide how to react to the speech. We expect one of two probable scenarios:

1.       The political parties will decide to end the current wave of protest and cooperate with the upcoming parliament elections. Most parties do not wish to create a situation that will postpone the elections set for the 28^th.

2.       The protesters will use the existing momentum to request the full and immediate resignation of SCAF.  

Foreigners in Cairo are advised to avoid all protest. If you encounter a protest, do not try to document or photograph it in any way. The next couple of days will be critical as far as travel security, advice and safety. If possible, stay in leading hotels, with a high level of security and services (For any questions and specific concerns, don't hesitate to contact us. 

Egypt's First Round

The first round of voting went by with relative calm. Egyptians came out to vote in great numbers, with a 70% participation rate among eligible voters. Despite long delays and long lines at polling stations, most waited patiently to exercise their right to vote in the countries first free elections. Initial surveys predict the Muslim Brotherhood's party, Freedom and Justice Party, will win the most votes, with close to 40%. The brotherhood's rise to power will create a new reality in the post Mubarak Egypt. Many secular Egyptians, as well as Western Nations, fear of a possible "Islamisation" in Egypt, with much emphasis on Islamic laws. However, the brotherhood and their political Party FJP, are attempting to calm such fears, stating that Egypt will remain a democratic nation first.

What can we expect?

While the brotherhood presents a fairly liberal Islamic Agenda, history proves that this may change. A similar process took place in Turkey over the past decade. The Muslim Turkish Justice and Development Party, took power in a landslide victory in the Turkish elections of 2002. The party's agenda was that of Liberal Islam, promising to keep Turkey's separation between religion and state. Over the years, we have witnessed a rise in the popularity of Islam in Turkey, including in the governments actions. Most notably the downfall of Turkey's ultra secular symbol, the Army. Middle East Intelligence Analysts have identified this trend and point to the growing spillage of Islamic laws into the Turkish modern life.

In Egypt, a similar scenario may occur. The Muslim Brotherhood may tone down the Islamic Ideology during the initial elections period in order to gain support from moderate Islamist and secular voters. The FJP in Egypt has consulted with its Turkish counterparts prior to the Egyptian elections. They discussed methods of gaining wide spread support from secular voters and not just religious voters. One can only hope the the FJP's post election decision making will adhere to the Liberal Islamic agenda presented in their campaign. If not, we will witness an Egypt that is slowly turning into a nation led more Islamic Sharia laws on the expense of democratic ideals.

This process will take some time, but will surely contribute to the struggles ahead in Egypt's post Mubarak era.